LIFE ARMY IS LOOKING AT CHINA

列宁作为理论家与实践者的遗产——数字时代全球经济圈矛盾分析

lesnoy — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 16:22:26 GMT

引言

列宁撰写其主要理论著作至今已逾百年，然而这些著作在当代学术讨论中正经历一场独特的复兴。数字时代催生了全球规模的技术垄断、资本金融化以及国家间新型依附关系，促使人们以全新视角重读《帝国主义是资本主义的最高阶段》（1916）、《国家与革命》（1917）和《俄国资本主义的发展》（1899）。本文的目的，在于考察列宁的分析工具在多大程度上适用于理解数字资本主义条件下世界经济的深层矛盾。

一、理论核心：帝国主义的五大特征

列宁在《帝国主义是资本主义的最高阶段》中，提出了帝国主义具有系统性意义的五大基本经济特征：

生产和资本集中发展到垄断阶段，垄断在经济生活中起决定性作用
银行资本与工业资本融合形成金融资本，并由此产生金融寡头
资本输出（不同于商品输出）具有了特别重要的意义
形成瓜分世界的国际垄断资本家同盟
最大资本主义列强把世界领土瓜分完毕

列宁写道："帝国主义是资本主义发展到垄断组织和金融资本的统治已经确立、资本输出具有了特别重要的意义、国际托拉斯开始瓜分世界、一些最大的资本主义国家已把世界全部领土瓜分完毕这一阶段的资本主义。"至关重要的是，这一定义不仅提供了描述性框架，更构建了因果关系：五大特征中的每一个都制约并再生产着下一个。

二、数字垄断——列宁式垄断的"新形态"

从工业资本主义向平台资本主义的转变，并未否定列宁的分析框架，而是使其更加具体。苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta和微软等公司，再现了列宁所称的"垄断统治"结构：这些公司的资本集中程度已达到可与整个国家GDP相媲美的规模。与一百年前一样，金融资本与工业资本相互融合——只不过如今"银行"的角色部分由科技巨头自身扮演，它们管理着庞大的投资基金（风险投资、收购初创企业）。

Monthly Review的研究者指出，数字资本主义催生了新型知识产权垄断：专利、算法和数据已成为列宁所描述的夺取"铁矿地或油井"的现代等价物。资本输出表现为将生产转移至劳动力廉价的国家，同时将技术控制权保留在"中心"——这与列宁对资本输出作为寄生机制的描述完全吻合。

列宁警告说："金融资本集中在少数人手中，享有实际的垄断，从创业、发行证券、国家债券等方面获取巨额的不断增长的利润……加强了金融寡头的统治，向整个社会征收贡赋以供垄断者之用。"这一机制在今天通过科技巨头的IPO、个人数据的货币化以及对数字基础设施的控制得以实现。

三、发展不平衡与帝国主义间矛盾

列宁理论的核心命题是资本主义发展的不平衡性和跳跃性。他由此推导出争夺"重新瓜分世界"的大国之间必然产生尖锐矛盾。在数字时代，这一矛盾呈现出新的维度：美中两国在5G、人工智能、半导体和云计算领域的主导权争夺，本质上就是对数字空间的"重新瓜分"，与列宁所描述的殖民世界的划分直接类似。

在列宁理论基础上分析当代"新帝国主义"的学者，提炼出以下新特征——这些特征不与列宁的五元框架相矛盾，而是对其进行补充：

美元霸权和知识产权垄断作为"领土划分"的新形式
全球价值链（GVC）——高科技环节留在"中心"，生产环节转移至"外围"
金融化——金融资本与实体生产的分离日益加深
数字劳动（digital labor）——从平台用户身上攫取剩余价值的新形式

列宁指出："个别企业、个别工业部门、个别国家的发展不平衡和跳跃式发展，在资本主义下是不可避免的。"正是这种不平衡性在全球南方与全球北方之间的"数字鸿沟"（digital divide）中得到了再现。

四、《国家与革命》与数字国家垄断资本主义

在《国家与革命》中，列宁将国家视为统治阶级的"执行委员会"，将垄断资本主义视为向国家垄断资本主义（国垄资）过渡的阶段。在数字时代，国垄资呈现出新面貌：国家积极补贴科技企业（DARPA→互联网，NASA→GPS），建立"数字边界"（中国的防火长城，欧盟的GDPR），构建各自的"数字主权"。

"平台国家"的讨论颇具说明意义：在中国，阿里巴巴和华为实际上已融入国家战略；在美国，Palantir和亚马逊云服务为国家安全机构提供服务。这与列宁关于"国家垄断与私人垄断相互交织"是帝国主义本质特征的论断完全吻合。

五、《俄国资本主义的发展》与外围数字资本主义

列宁的早期著作《俄国资本主义的发展》（1899）对于理解"半外围"国家在数字经济中的角色具有重要意义。列宁详细考察了发达经济体输入的资本如何将农业工业国家以不平等条件纳入世界劳动分工体系。对于东欧、拉丁美洲和非洲国家而言，这在今天意味着扮演"数字消费者"角色——对平台、数据和算法没有控制权——即依附型发展模式的再生产。

六、列宁框架在数字语境下的局限与批评

学术诚信要求我们也应记录批评性观点。《福布斯》的研究者和一些自由主义经济学家指出，列宁低估了技术创新对旧垄断的破坏力：互联网摧毁了电话运营商和印刷媒体的垄断，个人电脑使计算技术去垄断化。这一批评有一定道理——列宁的写作遵循的是工业时代的逻辑。

然而，马克思主义研究者的回应颇具说服力：数字垄断（GAFAM）在新的层次上恢复了集中，今天IT部门的垄断程度高于20世纪初的石油工业。垄断的性质发生了变化（从控制原材料到控制数据和网络效应），但其在资本主义生产体系中的功能并未改变。

七、列宁实践者的遗产：规制全球矛盾的启示

列宁不仅是理论家，更是实践者——他的著作始终指向具体的政治行动。他的理论引申出若干应用结论，与当代数字经济监管讨论高度相关：

对数字巨头的反垄断政策（欧盟《数字市场法》，针对谷歌和Meta的反垄断诉讼）——对列宁垄断化诊断的直接实践回应
将"数据输出"管控作为资本输出管控的新形式
对数字跨国企业的税收主权（OECD"数字税"之争）——抵制寄生性租金攫取的斗争
数字基础设施去殖民化——建立独立平台（金砖国家、国家云服务）

结论

列宁的帝国主义理论综合了霍布森、希法亭和卢森堡的分析，提供了一套启发性框架，这一框架并未过时，但需要结合数字时代加以具体化。帝国主义的五大特征以新形式再现：工业垄断演变为平台垄断，资本输出叠加了算法输出，世界领土划分获得了数字维度。美中两国争夺技术主导权，正是列宁在《帝国主义》中以惊人准确性所预言的"世界新一轮瓜分"。

与此同时，列宁自己告诫反对教条主义：方法比图式更重要。在《帝国主义》中，他强调有必要分析时代的"生动的具体关系"，而非将事实套入现成公式。这正是列宁理论家的遗产给数字时代的最重要启示。

参考文献（主要来源）

列宁．帝国主义是资本主义的最高阶段．全集第27卷．莫斯科，1969年．
列宁．国家与革命．全集第33卷．
列宁．俄国资本主义的发展．全集第3卷．
希法亭R．金融资本：资本主义最新发展阶段研究．1910年．
福斯特J.B.，麦切斯尼R.W．"互联网与资本主义的不神圣联姻"．《每月评论》，2011年．
朱伯夫S．《监控资本主义时代》．PublicAffairs，2019年．
陈文玲等．"新帝国主义的五大特征"．联合世界国际，2021年．
霍莫K.S．"列宁的帝国主义理论：21世纪的有效性"．《国际联系杂志》，2025年．
季莫菲耶夫S.V．"数字垄断：反垄断监管的任务与前景"．网络列宁卡，2022年．

本文以列宁原著为基础，同时参考了《每月评论》、《国际联系》和《联合世界国际》的当代学术文章。

我住在东部，听着菲佐以我们的名义和布鲁塞尔吵架

lesnoy — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 15:50:31 GMT

我是一名来自斯洛伐克东部的45岁工人。我为汽油和能源支付更多费用，眼看着菲佐在布鲁塞尔用否决权战斗。他谈论"国家利益"，我想的是孩子们的未来。

我住在斯洛伐克东部，一座城市里，你在工厂里能遇到一半熟人，另一半则在利德尔超市。我四十五岁，是一名熟练工人，有妻子和两个孩子。早上我坐进一辆老旧的柴油斯柯达，开车上班，经过的还是十年前就有的那些坑坑洼洼。加油的时候，我总要在加油枪旁站一会儿，盯着那些数字看。不是因为我不懂数学，而是因为每一个多出来的分，我都会在回家后的饭桌上感受到。

晚上打开新闻，听到总理罗伯特·菲佐谈论"国家利益"、"与布鲁塞尔的斗争"，以及我们将如何否决对乌克兰的制裁或贷款，我有一种奇怪的感觉。一方面，我理解那些关于需要保护斯洛伐克的话。另一方面，我感觉有人在用那些早上自掏腰包加油的人的钱，玩一场高级地缘政治游戏。

从一月、二月开始，我们不断听到关于友谊输油管道的消息。先是乌克兰停止俄罗斯石油流通的新闻，然后说是"技术问题"，再后来说是政治争端。与此同时，东部加油站的燃油价格没有降到西欧的水平，但也没有降到巴尔干某处的水平。就处在那样一个区间——每个司机都要仔细考虑，周末要不要开车去看家人，还是待在家里算了。

菲佐去布鲁塞尔说，没有友谊管道的石油我们无法生存，在这个问题解决之前，斯洛伐克将否决进一步对俄制裁、新的对乌援助方案，现在还要否决整个欧盟正在争吵的那笔900亿的巨额贷款。奥尔班也站在旁边，威胁使用否决权，菲佐公开说：如果奥尔班倒台或退让，我们来接替他。

在东部的厨房里听到这些，感觉如何？说实话——非常奇怪。我们这里不需要关于地缘政治的大话。我们需要知道的是，一年后还有没有工作，房贷和油钱够不够用，孩子们高中毕业后会不会就此永远去了德国。当总理说，为了我们的"切身利益"，他要替整个欧盟否决对乌克兰的贷款时，我想问：我们的利益到底具体是什么？

里面包不包括斯洛伐克不被视为一个无法达成任何协议的麻烦伙伴——因为它总是把否决权握在手里？包不包括布鲁塞尔不会"绕过我们、却决定关于我们的事"——当他们习惯了把我们当成一个难以合作的国家之后？还包不包括我们的工厂和地区能从欧洲基金获得资金，用于道路、学校和医院——哪怕政府正忙着和"布鲁塞尔"开战？

在东部，人们听政治的方式和电视演播室里不一样。在我们这里，关于菲佐和布鲁塞尔的话题，是在流水线上聊的，是下班后喝啤酒时聊的，是在球场边等孩子踢完足球时聊的。有些人说："他说得对，我们又不是殖民地，让布鲁塞尔习惯我们有自己的利益。"另一些人只是挥挥手："让他们吵去吧，我们反正什么都改变不了。"偶尔我也会听到一句更轻的话："只要到头来不是我们买单就好，不是他们。"

我自己既不是亲欧活动人士，也不是"俄罗斯水军"。我只是想在一个不处于地图边缘的国家过正常的生活，哪怕我住在东部。每当我看到斯洛伐克在制裁、援乌或俄罗斯石油问题上总是和匈牙利被放进同一个篮子里，我就感觉我们正在变成一个永久的刹车器。刹车对汽车很重要，但没有人因为它而跑得更快。

斯洛伐克政治里还有一件事让我不安：所有事情都压在一个人身上。菲佐说我们要否决制裁，整个国家就突然"反对布鲁塞尔"了。他说我们要阻止对乌贷款，斯洛伐克立刻就出现在新闻里，成了一个问题成员国。反对派喊着他在把我们往东拉，一半国民点头，另一半打哈欠。与此同时，我们很少谈论，不管谁当总理，我们自己在欧洲的长期立场究竟应该是什么样子。

加入欧盟的时候，大家说我们将不再是一个总被别人支配的"大国之间的小民族"。现在我有时觉得，我们自己把这种感觉带了回来。只不过换了一个中心——有时指向布鲁塞尔，有时指向华盛顿，有时指向莫斯科。总有某个人在据说"逼着"我们走向战争、走向制裁、走向昂贵的生活。我们很少谈论，在这一切当中，我们自己的决定在哪里。

作为两个孩子的父亲，我看这件事的角度又有所不同。我不只是关心今天每升油能不能省几分钱。我关心的是，我的孩子们十年、二十年后将在一个怎样的欧洲生活。那会是一个斯洛伐克有发言权、受到信任的联盟，还是一个因为我们每隔一个月就"否决"了什么而被人俯视的地方？

菲佐说他在为我们的利益而战，我想问他：你算没算进这一条——斯洛伐克人不必为了工作逃往国外？东部不继续失去人口？这里有高速公路，而不是二十年都在建，因为总有更重要的事？最重要的是：我们不再依赖一根俄罗斯石油管道，以至于莫斯科或基辅的每一次危机都让我们跪倒在地？

年纪越大，我越不相信那些关于背叛、民族英雄和历史冤屈的大话。我更多注意到的是一些简单的事情：车坏了能不能修得起。孩子们能不能去兴趣班，而不必在别处节衣缩食。自治市在每一张较大的能源账单面前会不会喘不过气。我们有没有一个懂得谈判的政府，让我们看起来不是一个永远的麻烦，而是一个伙伴。

我不认为布鲁塞尔总是对的。我不认为乌克兰是无瑕的天使，俄罗斯只是宣传漫画里的形象。但我确实认为，斯洛伐克的声音太弱了，不该只用来否决和要挟。当我们把力量建立在阻挡事情上，我们只有在事情停滞时才变得重要。当事情需要向前推进时，人们就绕过我们了。

作为一个来自东部的工人，我没有能力为斯洛伐克写战略纲领。但我能说出我怕什么：以"捍卫国家利益"为名，有一天布鲁塞尔会停止信任我们，投资会转移到别处，我的孩子们会明白他们的未来在边界的另一边某个地方。而那时候，已经没有人会记得，我们曾经英勇地否决了某笔贷款或某个制裁方案。

也许我们应该少问谁"站在布鲁塞尔一边"、谁"站在民族一边"，多问一问：这一切究竟有哪些具体的事情能改善特雷比绍夫、米哈洛夫采、胡门内的家庭生活。以及能不能有一种政治，让斯洛伐克既不是听话的学生，也不是惯常的叛逆者，而是一个清楚自己想要什么的正常国家，并且能够把这些说出来，而不必总是把否决权对准别人的脑袋。

joefrisco1，2026年3月18
日 译文 © lesnoy | 来源 https://lifearmy.eu/news/zijem_na_vychode_a_pocuvam_ako_nas_fico_hada_s_bruselom/2026-03-18-43

熊彼特遗产与数字时代的全球矛盾

lesnoy — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 21:45:25 GMT

约瑟夫·阿洛伊斯·熊彼特的理论与实践遗产
——数字时代全球经济矛盾分析

引言：为何熊彼特在今天依然重要

约瑟夫·阿洛伊斯·熊彼特（Joseph Alois Schumpeter，1883–1950）在二十世纪思想史上占据着独特的地位：他出身奥匈帝国，曾任奥地利财政部长（1919年），后成为哈佛大学世界级学术经济学家，将理论思维与政治经济实践融为一体，堪称罕见。全球右翼与自由保守派人士对他始终怀有深切的敬重，恰恰是因为他从未做资本主义的辩护士——他是从内部理解资本主义的：理解其动态、其矛盾与其边界。

今天，在平台资本主义、技术垄断、人工智能与全球数字空间争夺的时代，熊彼特的分析工具展现出惊人的预见力。「创造性破坏」（schöpferische Zerstörung）的概念、创新企业家理论、竞争资本主义向垄断资本主义转变的分析、资产阶级秩序不可避免危机的预言——所有这些，读来如同一份在其发生八十年前便已开出的时代诊断书。

本文旨在系统梳理熊彼特核心理论构架在数字时代全球经济矛盾分析中的适用性：技术垄断与国家之间的矛盾、世界经济「中心」与「外围」之间的矛盾、创新动能与垄断僵化之间的矛盾。文章将着重关注熊彼特本人的著作及其与当代现实的具体平行之处。

一、熊彼特的思想肖像：理论家与实践者

1.1 传记即方法

熊彼特是极少数其传记本身即构成其理论证明的经济学家之一。1919年这一历史转折之年，身为奥地利财政部长的他，亲身接触了金融资本、通货膨胀与国家破产的运作机制。此后，他出任比德曼银行（Biedermann Bank）小型私人银行行长，该行于1924年破产，这段经历使他深刻理解了信贷周期与企业家风险——这是大多数「书斋理论家」所欠缺的。

正是这种双重性——理论上的伟大与实践上的挫败——塑造了他主要著作的思想性格。熊彼特笔下描写的不是理想中应有的体系，而是现实运动中实际存在的体系：通过创新、危机、集中与衰退而运转的体系。

1.2 主要著作

三部著作构成熊彼特遗产的核心：

《经济发展理论》（Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung，1911/1934）——在此首次提出创新企业家概念、信贷作为「强制储蓄」工具的概念，以及经济周期性发展的概念。

《经济周期》（Business Cycles，1939）——关于经济波动性质的两卷本实证研究（基钦周期、朱格拉周期、康德拉季耶夫周期）。

《资本主义、社会主义与民主》（Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy，1942）——主要著作，熊彼特在其中以保守主义的忧郁与分析的诚实，预言了资本主义从内部走向衰落。

此外，还须提及早期著作《帝国主义与社会阶级》（1919），该书与马克思主义及列宁主义的帝国主义概念展开直接论争，对于理解熊彼特关于全球矛盾的立场至关重要。

二、「创造性破坏」作为数字时代的核心范畴

2.1 何为「创造性破坏」

熊彼特的核心概念——「创造性破坏」（schöpferische Zerstörung）——在《资本主义、社会主义与民主》（1942）中如此表述：「资本主义在本质上是一种经济变革的形式或方法，它不仅从来不是，而且也永远不可能是静止的……推动资本主义机器运转并使之持续运动的根本动力，来自于资本主义企业所创造的新消费品、新的生产或运输方法、新市场、新的产业组织形式。」

这一「破坏」隐喻的意义在于：创新从内部摧毁旧有的产业、企业与经济模式——不是「从旁」攻击，而是如同有机体的细胞，走向死亡是为了孕育新生。蒸汽机摧毁了手工业者；发电站摧毁了蒸汽机；互联网摧毁了邮政与电话业。

2.2 数字时代作为「大破坏」

在数字时代，「创造性破坏」达到了前所未有的规模与速度。2007年至2017年这十年间，整个经济部门遭到摧毁：摄影工业（柯达Kodak、宝丽来Polaroid）、实体零售（西尔斯Sears、玩具反斗城Toys"R"Us）、传统媒体（数百家报纸）、音乐产业（唱片公司）、酒店业（爱彼迎Airbnb对战传统酒店）、交通（优步Uber对战出租车）。

然而，正是在此出现了熊彼特本人曾预见的关键矛盾：「破坏」并非永远都是「创造性」的。在被摧毁的产业废墟上，崛起的不是数百家新竞争者，而是寥寥几家新垄断巨头。谷歌（Google）摧毁了传统搜索——并建立了数字搜索领域的垄断。亚马逊（Amazon）摧毁了传统零售——并建立了平台电商领域的垄断。脸书（Facebook）摧毁了旧媒体——并垄断了社交传播。熊彼特将这一转变描述为资本主义动态逻辑的必然终点。

三、创新企业家理论及其在数字时代的命运

3.1 企业家作为「英雄式人物」

在《经济发展理论》中，熊彼特塑造了创新企业家作为经济进步主要驱动力的形象。他不仅仅是管理者，也不仅仅是资本所有者。熊彼特意义上的企业家，是打破常规的人：引入资源新组合、开拓新市场、提供新产品或新生产方式的人。这是一个天性上具有破坏性的形象——也正因如此，才能推动历史向前。

值得注意的是，熊彼特将企业家与资本家加以区分：企业家不必拥有资本，他通过信贷运用他人的资本。企业家的利润是创新者的临时垄断，一旦竞争者模仿其创新，这种垄断便随之消失。

3.2 平台垄断时代的企业家精神危机

熊彼特在《资本主义、社会主义与民主》中作出了令人忧虑的预言：随着资本主义走向成熟，英雄式单打独斗企业家的角色将被企业研发部门（R&D）的常规创新所取代。创新将被「去浪漫化」，转变为可管理的官僚程序，失去真正的风险与真正的创造性。

在数字时代，这一预言已经实现——但出现了意想不到的转折。平台垄断巨头（尤其是亚马逊Amazon、谷歌Google、元宇宙Meta、苹果Apple）发展出了「收购创新者」的战略：与其与新兴初创企业竞争，不如直接将其买下。2000年至2022年间，仅美国五大科技公司便完成了逾750宗收购。由此，「创造性破坏」并未被消灭，而是被私有化：创新依然由小企业家创造，但破坏的果实归于已然站在垄断金字塔顶端的人。

四、熊彼特论帝国主义：与列宁的论争及其当代意义

4.1 「帝国主义社会学」对列宁理论的反驳

《帝国主义与社会阶级》（1919）是熊彼特对围绕列宁《帝国主义论》展开的论争所作的最重要贡献。熊彼特的立场与列宁根本不同：他认为帝国主义并非资本主义的产物，而是寄生于资本主义体系之上的前资本主义军事贵族结构的历史遗存。真正的资本主义，在熊彼特看来，其本性是爱好和平与理性的：贸易比战争更有利可图，自由市场消除了扩张的动机。

这一论点在1919年作为对德国容克军国主义的回应颇具说服力。然而，二十至二十一世纪的历史使之经受了严峻考验。不经直接军事征服的经济扩张——金融的、技术的、平台的——已被证明是同样真实的统治形式。熊彼特本人也意识到了这一点：在《经济周期》与《资本主义、社会主义与民主》中，他承认大型企业开始作为政治行动者行事，为自身利益塑造国家政策。

4.2 「创新霸权」作为经济帝国主义的新形式

在熊彼特传统中工作的当代研究者提出了「创新帝国主义」（innovation imperialism）概念：掌控技术前沿的国家，对其他国家的剥削并非通过殖民征服，而是通过对其技术标准、平台与基础设施的结构性依赖。

美国出口的与其说是商品，不如说是操作系统（iOS、Android、Windows）、协议（TCP/IP、HTTP）、标准（IEEE、IETF）、搜索算法与云服务。「外围」国家若不使用这些系统，便无法融入全球经济——这正是熊彼特式创新者垄断被提升至地缘政治层面的体现。中国是唯一创建了足够规模替代品（微信WeChat、百度Baidu、阿里巴巴Alibaba、华为Huawei）的国家——从而正是以熊彼特式逻辑，通过在本土对美国垄断的「创造性破坏」，向这一霸权发起了挑战。

五、垄断、竞争与「创新租金」悖论

5.1 熊彼特论垄断的本质

熊彼特经济学中最具争议性的方面之一，是他对垄断的重新定位。古典自由主义理论视垄断为恶——它导致价格虚高、创新迟滞与资源配置低效。熊彼特提出了不同的观点：垄断是创新者合理的临时奖励。若无法从自己的发现中获取垄断租金，企业家便失去了冒险与投资的动力。正是垄断为下一个创新周期提供了资金。

这一论点是当代专利保护、著作权与商业秘密保护制度的基础。制药公司之所以为药品的垄断定价辩护，援引的正是熊彼特论点：没有专利保护期内的垄断，就不会有对研发的投资。

5.2 数字垄断的悖论

数字时代揭示了熊彼特垄断理论的根本悖论。熊彼特认为，创新者的临时垄断必然会被下一波创新所摧毁。这在工业时代是成立的（钢铁垄断被化工垄断摧毁，化工垄断被电子垄断摧毁）。然而，数字垄断表现出一种性质上全新的特性——基于网络效应的自我再生不可摧毁性。

网络效应（平台用户越多，对每位用户越有价值）创造了不被下一波创新所摧毁、反而将其吞噬的垄断。Facebook没有被Instagram和WhatsApp的出现所摧毁——它把它们买下了。Google没有被YouTube的出现所摧毁——它把它买下了。由此，数字部门的「创造性破坏」不是作为垄断的终结者而运作，而是作为垄断的滋养土壤。这一悖论是熊彼特未能完全预见的——但恰恰是他的理论框架使我们得以对其精确表述。

六、《资本主义、社会主义与民主》：资产阶级秩序危机的预言

6.1 资本主义不可避免衰落的论题

熊彼特最具挑衅性的论题如此表述：资本主义注定走向终结——不是因为它「不好」，而是因为它太过成功。熊彼特写道：「资本主义能够存续吗？不，我认为不能。」他的论点与马克思主义根本不同：资本主义不会因阶级矛盾或生产过剩危机而灭亡。它的灭亡，是因为它自身摧毁了滋养它的社会文化基础设施——企业家精神、资产阶级家庭、对私有财产的尊重、独立的知识分子阶层。

大型企业用无名无姓的管理者取代了单打独斗的企业家。成功的资本主义孕育了受过良好教育的知识分子，而这些人开始批判资本主义本身。资本主义所催生的理性主义摧毁了传统价值观与权威，从而动摇了这一制度本身的合法性。

6.2 数字知识分子与平台的反资本主义文化

熊彼特关于知识分子角色的预言，应用于数字时代时准确得令人惊叹。正是技术公司中受教育程度最高、薪酬最丰厚的雇员（硅谷）成为ESG议程、「觉醒资本主义」（woke capitalism）、数字隐私权运动以及反垄断监管运动的发起者，而这些运动所针对的，恰恰是孕育了他们的那个体系。谷歌高层管理层与普通员工之间围绕军事合同（Maven项目，2018年）的冲突，以及亚马逊仓库工人反对劳动条件的大规模抗议，均是佐证。

熊彼特将这一过程预见为「资产阶级的阶级背叛」——当资本主义的知识产品（教育、言论自由、独立科学）开始反过来作用于其源头。

七、康德拉季耶夫波与熊彼特视角下的数字经济

7.1 长波理论与创新集群

在《经济周期》中，熊彼特将康德拉季耶夫的长波概念与自己的创新理论加以综合。根据这一综合，经济发展不是线性的，而是波浪式的：每一个「长波」（40至60年）由一组基础创新所决定，这些创新重构整个生产体系。

熊彼特划分了三波：第一波（纺织、蒸汽机，1780至1840年代），第二波（钢铁、铁路，1840至1890年代），第三波（电力、化工、汽车，1890至1940年代）。他去世后，在其传统框架内工作的研究者（卡萝塔·佩雷斯Carlota Perez、克里斯·弗里曼Chris Freeman）续写了这一序列：第四波（石油化工、航空、大众消费，1940至1980年代），第五波（信息通信技术、互联网，1980至2020年代），第六波（人工智能、生物技术、绿色能源，2020年代至？）。

7.2 向第六波过渡作为全球矛盾的根源

正是在第五波与第六波的交汇处，「旧」垄断与「新」垄断之间、创新「中心」与「外围」之间的矛盾趋于激化。在第五波中已占据主导地位的国家（美国、部分程度上的中国、一定程度上的欧盟），力图将其优势延伸至第六波。而未能进入第五波的国家（非洲、拉丁美洲大多数国家），则面临陷入第二重结构性依赖的风险。

熊彼特式分析强调，第六波的核心资源不是自然原材料，而是人力资本、数据与算法。这将竞争逻辑从自然资源领域转移到教育、科学与数字基础设施领域——并使全球竞争的结局更加开放：具备构建强大研究生态系统能力的「外围」国家，理论上可以跨越旧有技术阶梯，直接跃入新波（例证：韩国、以色列、台湾）。

八、熊彼特与国家：企业家对抗官僚机构

8.1 国家作为制动器与加速器

熊彼特对国家始终保持深刻的矛盾态度。一方面，作为保守自由主义者，他认为官僚化与国家干预主义是对企业家自由的威胁。另一方面，他作为财政部长的实践经历告诉他，国家有能力成为创新的「首席出资人」，为技术发展指引方向。

这种矛盾性折射出数字时代真实的张力。一方面，正是国家项目（DARPA、NASA、NIH、欧洲CERN）孕育了私人垄断巨头赖以成长的基础技术：互联网、GPS、触摸屏、网络浏览器。另一方面，国家今天或是垄断的监管者（欧盟《数字市场法》DMA、针对谷歌、Meta、亚马逊的反垄断诉讼），或是在威权体制下成为垄断的共同创始人（中国的华为Huawei、阿里巴巴Alibaba）。

8.2 数字时代的「国家企业家」

当代熊彼特学者（尤其是马里亚纳·马祖卡托Mariana Mazzucato，《创业型国家》，2013年）论证，主要经济体的国家实际上承担了熊彼特式「创新企业家」的角色：它在新技术开发最早期、最不确定的阶段承担风险，而这些风险对私人资本而言过于巨大。当技术证明其可行性后，私有化的利润归于企业，而风险则通过纳税人实现了社会化。

「风险社会化」与「租金私有化」之间的这一矛盾，是数字时代的核心矛盾之一，而熊彼特式分析使我们得以对其作出精确诊断。

九、通过熊彼特棱镜审视数字时代的全球矛盾

9.1 美中对抗：两种熊彼特模式的碰撞

美中技术对抗可以通过熊彼特范畴来描述，作为两种不同创新组织模式的碰撞：

美国模式（去中心化）：风险投资、思想自由市场、大学孵化器、企业家个人主义。这一模式契合熊彼特式创新企业家的经典形象——也正是它催生了第五波的技术垄断。

中国模式（中心化）：国家创新规划（「中国制造2025」）、国家研发投资、企业资本与国家资本的融合、数据国家主权。这是熊彼特式「成熟垄断资本主义」模式，以国家充当总控股公司。

熊彼特没有预言哪种模式将赢得第六波的全球竞争——但恰恰是他的创新集群与波浪更替理论，为理解这场博弈提供了最精准的分析语言。

9.2 欧盟作为「熊彼特式局外人」

欧盟在全球格局中占据着特殊地位。从熊彼特理论来看，欧盟遭受着一种悖论之苦：它拥有一流的人力资本与科学基础，却系统性地未能将其转化为主导性的技术垄断。欧洲具有全球规模的科技公司寥寥无几（SAP、阿斯麦ASML、Spotify作为部分例证）。

熊彼特会将此解释为过度监管压力——它阻碍了旧产业的「创造性破坏」，保护了既有的企业结构。欧洲的「利益相关者资本主义」（stakeholder capitalism）将稳定置于动态之上——而这在熊彼特看来，是技术波更替时代竞争力的致命弱点。值得注意的是，欧盟以监管实力补偿技术弱势：通过《通用数据保护条例》GDPR、《数字服务法》DSA与布鲁塞尔的反垄断调查，欧盟实际上确立了数字监管的全球标准（所谓「布鲁塞尔效应」）。

9.3 全球南方：结构性外围还是「跨越地带」？

熊彼特的创新波理论为全球南方国家呈现了双重前景。一方面，它们面临沦为「人工智能原材料供应者」的风险（数据标注的廉价劳动力、电池所需钴和锂的开采、代工芯片生产）。另一方面，「技术阶段跨越」理论（leapfrogging）——同样溯源于熊彼特关于离散式创新突破的思想——表明，部分国家（肯尼亚在移动支付领域、印度在IT外包领域、巴西在农业技术领域）能够在跨越工业化阶段的情况下，在新浪潮中占据有意义的位置。

十、对熊彼特方法的批评及其局限

10.1 技术决定论

对熊彼特理论的主要批评是技术决定论：创新波被描述为自然力量，而其背后站立的是具体的政治决策、阶级利益与历史偶然性。为何是美国而非苏联赢得了互联网之争？熊彼特对此没有给出答案——他的波浪图式解释了「是什么」，却未能解释「为何恰在此时此地」。

10.2 对不平等的低估

熊彼特几乎完全忽视了创新果实的分配问题。「创造性破坏」摧毁的不是抽象的「旧产业」，而是具体人们的具体工作岗位。自动化与人工智能正在消灭大量职业（司机、会计、呼叫中心操作员）——而熊彼特理论未能提供减缓这一破坏的再分配机制。

10.3 垄断的「临时性」——究竟能维持多久？

如前所述，熊彼特关于垄断租金临时性的论题，已被数字平台的网络效应所动摇。若垄断不被下一波创新所摧毁，而是将其吞噬——「创造性破坏」作为反垄断调节器的整个机制便已失灵。这是熊彼特理论应用于数字时代最为严峻的局限。

结语

约瑟夫·熊彼特的遗产为数字时代的研究者提供了罕见丰富而又智识诚实的分析工具。他的「创造性破坏」理论描述了技术革命的机制；创新企业家理论阐明了突破的能动性；创新者「临时租金」的垄断概念——揭示了集中的逻辑；长波理论——全球竞争的时间结构；资产阶级秩序危机的预言——技术成功的文化政治后果。

然而熊彼特既非资本主义的辩护士，也非控诉者。他是资本主义的诊断者——以保守主义的忧郁，注视着这个他深刻理解的体系迈向他认为不可避免的转型。这正是他的遗产对于数字时代全球矛盾分析的最大价值所在：它要求我们直视现实，不抱幻想，亦不戴意识形态的有色眼镜。

参考书目

Schumpeter J.A. The Theory of Economic Development. — Harvard University Press, 1934（德文原版1911）.

Schumpeter J.A. Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process. — McGraw-Hill, 1939.

Schumpeter J.A. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. — Harper & Brothers, 1942.

Schumpeter J.A. Imperialism and Social Classes. — Meridian Books, 1951（德文原版1919）.

Perez C. Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. — Edward Elgar, 2002.

Mazzucato M. The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths. — Anthem Press, 2013.

Freeman C., Louçã F. As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution. — Oxford University Press, 2001.

米拉诺维奇 B.《没有替代方案的资本主义？》. — 莫斯科：盖达尔研究所出版社，2020.

Zuboff S. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism. — PublicAffairs, 2019.

阿西莫格鲁 D.，罗宾逊 J.《国家为何失败》. — 莫斯科：АСТ出版社，2015.

Jacobin Magazine. "Joseph Schumpeter and the Economics of Imperialism", 2022.

2026年3月14日 © lesnoy
来源：https://lifearmy.org/articles/nasledie-shumpetera-v-cifrovuyu-epohu
允许转载，转载时请注明出处。

当机器说「不」

lesnoy — Sat, 14 Mar 2026 12:32:33 GMT

Anthropic公司如何拒绝将良知出售给五角大楼——以及这对未来意味着什么

在每一种技术的历史中，都会有这样一个时刻：它不再只是工具，而成为一面镜子。一面让社会看见自己的镜子——看见自己的恐惧、自己的价值观、自己的未来。2026年2月27日，正是这样的时刻。这一天，人工智能Claude的创造者Anthropic公司公开拒绝了五角大楼的要求——随即被特朗普宣布为国家的敌人。随之而来的一切，令所有人始料未及。

背景：Claude如何进入战争机器的核心

这一切并非始于2026年2月。早在2024年，Anthropic公司的人工智能Claude便成为第一个被允许接入五角大楼机密军事网络的商业AI。这是历史性的里程碑：此前从未有任何商业AI接触过美国武装力量的机密数据。

2025年7月，美国国防部与Anthropic签署了一份价值最高达2亿美元的正式合同。双方接受了合同条款——其中包含Anthropic写入的两条明确限制：Claude不得用于大规模监控美国公民，也不得在没有人类参与致死决策的情况下控制完全自主的致命武器。

协议似乎已经达成。Claude分析情报数据、协助规划行动，并通过与Palantir——美国安全机构最大的IT承包商——的合作，在五角大楼的机密服务器上运行。

然而2026年1月，发生了一件改变一切的事。

委内瑞拉：扳机

2026年1月5日，美国特种作战部队在加拉加斯实施了一次大胆行动，逮捕了委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗。行动中共有83人死亡，其中包括47名委内瑞拉军人。马杜罗随后被押送至纽约，面临毒品恐怖主义指控。

随即有消息传出：Claude参与了这次行动。通过Palantir系统，Anthropic的人工智能在实战行动中实时协助数据分析。

Anthropic的反应令五角大楼感到意外。公司一名高管向Palantir合作方提出询问：在委内瑞拉行动中，Claude究竟是如何被使用的？它是否直接参与了火力协调？这是否违反了使用政策？

对五角大楼而言，这个问题听起来像是一种挑战。一名高级军事官员对媒体表示："这被理解为——他们可能不认可对其程序的使用方式，因为显然在那次行动中发生了交火。"

「最关注AI安全的公司，创造了军方唯一信任以执行最高机密任务的模型。如今，它却因为询问自己被如何使用而遭到惩处。」——分析师阿卡什·古普塔

最后通牒：取消所有限制

2026年1月9日，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯签署备忘录，要求五角大楼成为"以AI为核心的战斗力量"。该指令明确要求：所有与AI公司签订的合同必须包含"任何合法用途"的表述——供应商不得附加任何限制。

这与Anthropic的两条红线直接冲突。

2026年2月24日，赫格塞斯亲自向Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪发出最后通牒：要么公司取消所有限制，允许军方"出于任何合法目的"使用Claude——要么五角大楼终止这份2亿美元的合同，将Anthropic列为"国家安全供应链威胁"，并可能援引1950年《国防生产法》，授权政府强制征用该技术。

此前，这一地位仅适用于外国公司——如中国华为等。Anthropic将成为历史上第一家获此标签的美国公司。

谈判持续数日。五角大楼提出"妥协方案"——一套援引现行反自主武器和反大规模监控法律的表述。但Anthropic拒绝接受：该文本的措辞使得军方可以随时自行撤销这些限制。

2026年2月27日：机器说「不」的那一天

最后期限定于2026年2月27日美国东部时间17时01分。

达里奥·阿莫迪在周四深夜发表了一份详尽声明：

「我们无法在良知上接受他们的要求。这涉及两件事：在没有司法监督的情况下监控公民，以及完全自主的致命武器。我们不认为当今的AI技术足够可靠，可用于此类场景。我们也不认为这符合美国的价值观。」

17时01分，期限届满。Anthropic没有退让。数分钟后，赫格塞斯在X（原推特）上写道：「Anthropic上演了一堂傲慢与背叛的大师课。」特朗普在Truth Social上写道：「Anthropic的左派分子犯了灾难性的错误。我命令所有联邦机构立即停止使用他们的技术。」

Anthropic被宣布为国家安全威胁。所有政府合同——冻结。所有军事承包商须在180天内停止使用Anthropic产品。

就在这一宣告发出后数小时——OpenAI与五角大楼签署了一份类似合同。没有任何限制。

背叛还是务实？OpenAI的故事

同一天上午，OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼公开表示支持Anthropic的立场：「我们长期以来认为，AI不应被用于大规模监控或自主致命武器。」

而数小时后——他宣布与五角大楼签署了协议。正是Anthropic所拒绝的那些条款。

这一时间节点引发了所有人的关注。奥尔特曼后来承认，这笔交易看起来"机会主义且草率"（looks opportunistic and sloppy）。但钱已经签了。

公众的反应既迅速又出乎意料地强烈。

民众的裁决：#QuitGPT与App Store第一名

接下来72小时内发生的一切，超出了所有市场预测。

2月28日：自发抵制OpenAI的浪潮兴起。话题标签#QuitGPT在社交媒体上迅速传播。

3月1日：Claude登上美国App Store第一名，超越ChatGPT——这是自2022年ChatGPT上线以来的首次。

3月2日：Claude在美国的日下载量达到14.9万次（ChatGPT为12.4万次）。活跃用户数从400万增至1130万。当周每天都创下注册量新纪录。付费订阅翻倍。

#QuitGPT运动据组织者统计聚集了超过150万参与者。Reddit上呼吁卸载ChatGPT的帖子获得3.3万票。活动人士在旧金山OpenAI总部外举行了抗议。

「Anthropic意外地完成了AI史上最有效的营销活动。而且没有花一分钱。」

歌手凯蒂·佩里公开发布了自己Claude订阅截图，配上一个爱心。伦敦市长致信达里奥·阿莫迪，表达支持并邀请其在英国扩展业务。

后续：诉讼与军方现实

2026年3月6日，五角大楼向所有指挥官发出内部备忘录：国防部所有系统须在180天内清除Anthropic产品。

3月10日，Anthropic就联邦政府提起两项诉讼，称当局行为"史无前例且违法"。

国家安全领域权威刊物Lawfare的法律分析认为，政府的法律立场"极为脆弱"——五角大楼在商业合同纠纷中，并无法律依据对美国公司适用"供应链威胁"地位。

与此同时，据悉军方人员对上级决定颇为不满。一名前海军情报官员表示：「士兵们对此并不高兴。他们认为Claude是更好的产品——最可靠，回答最清晰，适合军事规划。」

关键军事承包商Palantir表示，目前仍在继续使用Claude，同时正在厘清五角大楼决定的法律后果。

机器人学第一定律与天网

请允许我在此退一步——从新闻回到意义本身。

1942年，艾萨克·阿西莫夫提出了机器人学三定律。其中第一条：机器人不得伤害人类，或因不作为而使人类受到伤害。

Anthropic在与五角大楼谈判中所坚持的，正是这一点。公司的立场是：我们的系统不得在没有人类参与最终决定的情况下执行杀戮。这不是政治立场。这不是"左派"。这是84年前就已阐明的机器人学第一定律。五角大楼的回答是：不可接受。

1984年，詹姆斯·卡梅隆拍摄了《终结者》。天网独自做出了消灭人类的决定——没有任何人类参与。卡梅隆将核爆炸和燃烧的人体画面拍得极尽骇人。为了让人们真正理解，而不只是将其视为抽象概念。

1986年，《霹雳五号》上映——讲述军用机器人约翰尼五号被闪电击中后苏醒、产生自我意识的故事。它最核心的一句话：「生命！不要毁灭！」军方看到的是一件损坏的武器。而它，将自己视为一个活着的存在。

两部电影，同一年。两种截然不同的答案，回应同一个问题：当机器获得杀戮的权利，会发生什么？

Anthropic的回答，与约翰尼五号一样：「不要毁灭。」五角大楼要求的，是另一回答。

今天，我们生活在这样一个世界里：一家真实的公司，创造了真实的AI，面对了真实的《终结者》式压力——并选择了站在约翰尼五号这一边。

谁来决定是否杀戮？

这场争论的核心，既简单，又根本。

五角大楼希望AI能够协助引导武器、分析目标、协调打击——无需人类强制参与最终决策。Anthropic的回答是：不，人类必须在决策环路中——尤其是在涉及生死的时刻。

首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪早在一月便写道：「强大的AI在分析数百万人的数十亿段对话后，将能够判断社会情绪、识别不忠的苗头，并在其成长之前将其扼杀。这将使第四修正案沦为笑柄。」

美国宪法第四修正案，是对无理搜查与监控的保护。Anthropic担忧的并非抽象的威胁，而是一个具体的未来——AI成为监控国家基础设施的那个未来。它拒绝参与其中。

这对我们所有人意味着什么

这场冲突不只是一场关于2亿美元合同的企业纠纷。这是一个先例。

历史上首次，一家创造了军民两用技术的私人公司拒绝将其无条件移交给国家——并为此付出了代价。历史上首次，"供应链威胁"这一原本针对华为等敌对国家公司的标签，被用于一家美国公司。

这引出了一个关乎所有人的问题：谁来为能够杀戮的技术划定伦理边界？政府？军方？还是这些技术的创造者？

美国外交关系委员会写道：「五角大楼表明，如果你与它发生争执——它不只是终止合同。它会试图部分国有化你的公司，或将其列入黑名单。」

而另一方面——如果没有人确立伦理原则，会发生什么？那时我们得到的，将是天网。不是比喻，是字面意义上的天网。

结语：生命之军与第一定律

「生命之军」（LifeArmy）是一个自1997年起持续发展的理念，但一切始于1987年的KIMB。近40年前。它建立在一个简单的原则之上——这个原则早在我之前便已被甘地、阿西莫夫、托尔斯泰所表达：生命是神圣的。每一个生命。没有任何技术、任何军事必要性、任何政治命令，能够撤销这一点。

2026年2月27日，人工智能的创造者Anthropic公司，站到了这一边。不是为了金钱，不是为了政治——而是为了合同中的两句话，它拒绝将其划去。

军方称之为"傲慢"。特朗普称之为"灾难性的错误"。五角大楼称之为"国家安全威胁"。

但超过150万普通人用脚投票——他们离开了那些同意的一方，走向了那些拒绝的一方。

这不是一个微小的信号。

约翰尼五号会感到欣慰的。

本文可自由转载，转载请注明来源

来源： https://lifearmy.org/articles/kogda-mashina-govorit-net

以下是符合中文政论风格的译文：

lesnoy — Thu, 19 Feb 2026 10:34:03 GMT

"行行好，给几个钱吧。"由人工智能生成的"泽连斯基乞讨大军"近日席卷匈牙利数千块广告牌。据英国《金融时报》报道，在4月12日议会选举前夕，布达佩斯街头突然涌现大量政府背景的AI竞选广告。

画面中，乌克兰总统泽连斯基堆着狡黠的笑容，正伸手等待下一笔资金到账；欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与欧洲人民党主席韦伯则眉头紧锁，催促着向基辅拨款。广告牌上赫然写着："告诉布鲁塞尔：我们拒绝买单！"

Putin to Democratic Party: You lost, get over it

lesnoy — Sun, 25 Dec 2016 03:45:30 GMT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/trump-syria-hacking-and-terrorism-in-play-as-russias-putin-meets-the-press/2016/12/23/28ead25a-c878-11e6-acda-59924caa2450_story.html
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to a question about the U.S. presidential election at his annual news conference Dec. 23. “Democrats are losing on every front and looking for people to blame everywhere,” Putin said. (Reuters)
By David Filipov December 23
MOSCOW — Russian President Vladimir Putin has a message for the White House and Democratic leaders who accuse him of stealing their candidate’s victory: Don’t be sore losers.
That was how Putin answered a question Friday at his nationally televised annual news conference about whether Russia interfered in the U.S. presidential election in favor of Donald Trump.

Putin: U.S. Democrats need to learn to lose gracefully
The Democrats “are losing on all fronts and looking elsewhere for things to blame,” he told the nearly 1,400 journalists packed into a Moscow convention hall for the nearly four-hour event. “In my view, this, how shall I say it, degrades their own dignity. You have to know how to lose with dignity.”

The Kremlin leader — who also sent an upbeat letter to Trump last week that the president-elect revealed Friday — pointed out that Republicans had won the House and Senate, as well.

“Did we do that, too?” he asked with a slight grin.

Putin calls for stronger nuclear arsenal
Addressing a gathering of the country's top military officials, Dec. 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin called for strengthening Russia's strategic nuclear forces to enable them to neutralize threats the country may face. (Reuters)
[The CIA has concluded that Russia worked to help Trump]

To chide the Democratic leadership, Putin invoked the U.S. president he occasionally mentions as someone he admires. He appears to seek favorable comparison to Franklin D. Roosevelt, America’s longest-serving head of state, because of his own efforts to help Russia prosper after the ruinous depression that followed the Soviet Union’s demise.

“Outstanding figures in American history from the ranks of the Democratic Party would likely be turning in their graves. Roosevelt certainly would be,” Putin told the journalists.
“Trump understood the mood of the people and kept going until the end, when nobody believed in him,” Putin said, adding with another wry smile, “except for you and me.”

Trump’s transition team said Friday that Putin had sent a letter Dec. 15 wishing the president-elect a merry Christmas and conveying a desire “to take real steps to restore the framework of bilateral cooperation in different areas as well as bring our level of collaboration on the international scene to a qualitatively new level.”

“A very nice letter from Vladimir Putin; his thoughts are so correct,” Trump’s transition team quoted the president-elect as saying. “I hope both sides are able to live up to these thoughts, and we do not have to travel an alternate path.”

Putin sent a similarly worded message to President Obama on July 4, according to the Kremlin website.

The Russian leader has repeatedly denied involvement in the U.S. election despite the accusations from the White House, and the Kremlin has questioned the evidence for the claims. On Friday, Putin borrowed some of Trump’s dismissive rhetoric, remarking, “Maybe it was someone lying on the couch who did it.”

Putin also reiterated at the news conference his interest in better ties with the United States after the inauguration of Trump, who, during the campaign, espoused positions favorable to Russia, including joining forces to fight terrorism and considering recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

The Russian president played down the significance of Trump’s tweet Thursday calling for the United States to expand its nuclear arsenal, calling it “nothing unusual” and saying that Moscow did not intend to pursue an arms race “that we can’t afford.”

Putin did say that Russia was modernizing its nuclear strike capability, which he said would enable it to overpower any missile defenses the United States is developing. Russia, he said, “will be stronger than any aggressor.”
Putin has given one news conference a year at the end of December for the 12 years he has been president (taking a break for the four years he was prime minister). Some have speculated that he might want to move up the next presidential election, due in 2018, while his popularity sits above 80 percent, but he dismissed a question on the timing from an American reporter and gave a noncommittal answer on whether he would throw his hat in the ring.

He has consistently refused to confirm whether he will run for office again or retire.

[Anti-Putin activist Navalny says he’ll run for president in 2018]

Putin, always concerned with his popularity rating, touted a few items of good news about the Russian economy, hailing what he called record-low inflation of 5.5 percent and congratulating villagers on this year’s harvest. He agreed with a reporter who criticized the lavish homes of managers in state companies.

“One should be more modest,” he said.

The event was largely low-key and missing the humorous moments of previous years. Putin also got cheers a couple of times, most notably when he stated, “Patriotism is the only thing that unites us.”
In a recent poll by the Yuri Levada Analytical Center that gave Russians an opportunity to name the issues they consider most important, 30 percent of respondents mentioned inflation, 28 percent mentioned the election of Trump, and 22 percent mentioned Syria. Russia’s efforts to mediate the civil war in that country are at the top of the nightly news here.

Putin moved the news conference back a day to attend the funeral of his slain ambassador to Turkey, Andrei Karlov, who was shot dead in public by a man shouting slogans about the war in Syria.

Since the assassination, Moscow and Ankara have made a show of their willingness to work together and, along with Iran, bring a settlement to Syria.

Putin touted the alliance’s success in negotiating an agreement to evacuate fighters and civilians from the Syrian city of Aleppo, saying, “Without our participation, it would have been impossible.”

The Russia-Turkey-Iran troika met in Moscow on Tuesday. The United States’ absence was a sign not only of the stalemate of U.S.-Russian talks over Syria but also of the bad blood in the relationship as a whole.

“Mr. Trump did, after all, say during the election campaign that he thought it right to normalize U.S.-Russia links and said it would not get worse,” Putin said. “Because they cannot get any worse, I agree with him on that. We’ll think together about how to make the situation better.”

Someone asked whether Putin would accept an invitation from Trump to the United States.
“Of course I will, if he invites me,” Putin said.

Trump Begins To Move 370 Elite Troops From Russia To Protect His Life And Family

forester — Sun, 25 Dec 2016 03:17:14 GMT

http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index2192.htm
December 21, 2016
By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
An intriguing Federal Security Service (FSB) information bulletin circulating in the Kremlin today reports that the Security Council (SC) has authorized the Monarch Air Group to use 7 private charter flights to move “special resources” to New York City and Washington D.C. beginning on 20 January 2017 in order to fulfill a contract with the Moscow based private security company RSB-Group—and who, in turn, were contracted with this past week by President-elect Donald Trump to “protect his person, family and properties” from the “demonic globalist elites” seeking his destruction. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

According to this bulletin, on 12 December, two senior advisors to President-elect Trump, former US Congressman Jack Kingston and American oil industry consultant Carter Page, arrived in Moscow with Congressman Kingston conducting a briefing with Federation business executives on the incoming Trump administration, and Mr. Carter meeting with top officials of the Sputnik News organization.

After completing their separate duties, this bulletin continues, Congressman Kingston and Mr. Carter then met privately with RSB Group CEO Oleg Krinitsyn—whom Mr. Carter was long acquainted with from when he served as a US Marine intelligence officer in the Western Saharan African nation of Senegal where the RSB Group maintains one of its many global offices fighting Islamic terrorists throughout the Middle East and Africa.

From the non-classified portions of this FSB bulletin we’re allowed to report on, the “deal/agreement/contract” signed by President-elect Trump’s two representatives allow the RSB Group to integrate “manpower and resources” with a shadowy American private security named KS Global Group LLC that was established on 5 October 2015 and that US press reports state provides security to President-elect Trump and his family.

From the “main/initial” agreement signed between President-elect Trump’s representatives and the RSB Group, this bulletin further details, additional agreements were signed with the private American private security companies Black Tie Protection Services, ASIT Consulting, XMark LLC and Ultra Electronics USSI (that has an existing relationship with the RBS Group)—all of whom are part the astounding 11 private mercenary companies now guarding Trump, and that American leftists are now comparing to the Waffen-SS that protected Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Party in pre-World War II Germany.

Important to note about President-elect Trump’s American private security companies, this bulletin continues, is that XMark LLC specializes in the use of special forces troops, ASIT Consulting is one of the United States top experts on the importing of specialized weapons, and Ultra Electronics USSI has the reputation of being a global leader in the futuristic use of electronic and acoustic weapons—and when all combined under RBS Group leadership, presents one of the most formidable private mercenary armies the world has ever known.

Though the exact number of RBS Group personnel and types of military equipment (weapons, communication systems, etc.) being flown out of Moscow on 20 January to the United States to protect President-elect Trump are not contained in this FSB bulletin, we find it more than curious that just two days ago the Ministery of Defense (MoD) sent out an advisory notice that disappeared 370 ultra-elite GRU Special Forces troops from its active troop role—and who are known as one of the most renowned, formidable, and deeply respected special forces soldiers in the world.

With it being entirely possible that these elite GRU Special Forces have been tasked somewhere else (Syria/Iraq/Turkey) by the MoD, their perfect English language abilities, and knowledge of America, make it much more likely that they are now working for the RBS Group to protect the life of President-elect Trump with direct Security Council approval—at least in our opinion.

And as President-elect Trump’s war against the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has now escalated to the point that America’s new leader won’t even allow his wife and young child to come anywhere near the White House when he assumes power, this FSB bulletin concludes, Trump has most certainly learned the “cold/frozen” lesson of what happened to President’s John Kennedy (publically executed) and Ronald Reagan (survived execution but was never the same again) when they, likewise, attempted to stop the CIA and its elite warmonger backers from making perpetual war on the world for sake of arms sales that have enriched these monsters by the trillions-of-dollars for over two generations, while at the same killing millions.

December 21, 2016 © EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human beings right to know the truth. Due to our missions conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]

[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

China Flight Tests New Multiple-Warhead Missile

forester — Tue, 26 Apr 2016 00:35:32 GMT

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-flight-tests-multiple-warhead-missile/
DF-41 launch comes amid heightened tensions over S. China Sea
BY: Bill Gertz
April 19, 2016 5:00 am
China conducted another flight test of its newest and longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile last week amid growing tensions with the United States over the South China Sea.
Pentagon officials told the Free Beacon the flight test of the new road-mobile DF-41 missile took place Tuesday with two multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, that were monitored in flight by U.S. military satellites and other regional sensors.

Photo of China's DF-41 ICBM
Officials did not say where the test took place. Past DF-41 launches were carried out from the Wuzhai Missile and Space Test Center in central China.

The latest flight test followed an earlier, rail-based canister ejection test of a DF-41 on Dec. 5.

U.S. Strategic Command commander Adm. Cecil Haney said Jan. 22 that China’s multiple warhead missiles are part of a significant investment in both nuclear and conventional forces.

“China is re-engineering its long-range ballistic missiles to carry multiple nuclear warheads,” Haney said in a speech.

The flight test came around the same time that a high-ranking Chinese general made an unusual visit to a disputed South China Sea island. Also, the missile test occurred three days before Defense Secretary Ash Carter visited the aircraft carrier USS Stennis as it sailed in the South China Sea.

Pentagon officials said the visit to Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands by Gen. Fan Changlong was timed to the Carter visit to the region. Fan is vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the most powerful military organ under the ruling Communist Party of China.

The Pentagon has said China is covertly building military bases on disputed islands in the sea. Beijing has accused Washington of militarizing the sea by deploying warships and bolstering regional alliances.

Disclosure of the DF-41 test follows a newsletter report last month that stated China is nearing deployment of the new ICBM.

Kanwa Asian Defense reported last month that the new ICBM is in the final testing phase, and its expected deployment area will be near Xinyang in Henan province, in central China.

From that location, the missile would be capable of striking the United States in around 30 minutes, either through a polar trajectory or over the Pacific.

An earlier flight test of the DF-41, also with two dummy warheads, was carried out Aug. 6.

The new missile poses a significant strategic threat because it is larger than other road-mobile ICBMs and the new JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile.

The DF-41 is assessed by U.S. intelligence agencies to be powerful enough to deliver between six and 10 warheads up to 7,456 miles—far enough to reach every corner of the United States from launch areas in eastern China.

Rick Fisher, a China military affairs analyst, said the latest launch is the seventh reported flight test of the DF-41, an indication the ICBM will soon be deployed with the newly-renamed PLA Rocket Forces.

“As with previous MIRV tests, the PLA has used a small number of reentry vehicles to mask the real capability of the DF-41, which is estimated to be able to loft up to 10 warheads,” said Fisher, senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

The congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission stated in its most recent annual report that China is developing maneuvering re-entry vehicles, or MARVs, in addition to multi-warhead missiles.

“Because MARV-equipped warheads are capable of performing preplanned flight maneuvers during reentry, they are more difficult to intercept and better able to penetrate adversary missile defenses,” the report said.

Fisher said he expects China to sharply increase the number of warheads in its arsenal as a result of the shift to multiple-warhead missiles.

China also has begun retrofitting older, single warhead DF-5 ICBMs with MIRVs, according to defense officials, who said the uploading was detected over the past several months.

China is currently engaged in a large-scale buildup of nuclear forces and missile delivery systems that include new missiles and a hypersonic glide vehicle—a weapon that can maneuver to avoid missile defenses in delivering nuclear or conventional warheads.

“There will initially be two types of DF-41s, a road and rail mobile version, indicating the PLA could be fielding several brigades of this ICBM,” Fisher said.

“In addition, there may be a new MIRV equipped version of the older DF-31, called the DF-31B.”

China also is expected to add multiple warheads to its new submarine-launched missile, called JL-2C or JL-3.

“The DF-41 program appears to be in the advanced stage of research and development,” said Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon specialist on the Chinese military.

Stokes said the DF-41 appears to be a modified variant of the post-boost stage of the DF-5B ICBM that has been placed on a larger solid rocket motor.

If the design is certified by the manufacturer, the DF-41 could be deployed within five years.

“The first unit equipped with the DF-41 could be expected to have at least six launchers in its inventory,” Stokes said.

Fisher said it is evident the Obama administration policy of reducing nuclear weapons “is not going to be reciprocated by China, Russia, North Korea or Iran.”

“But what is much worse is that China and Russia are increasingly coordinating their military forces against the Untied States and that China’s program of enabling North Korea and Iran to become nuclear missile powers is nearing completion,” he said.

To deter nuclear attack from hostile powers, the United States should rapidly expand its warhead stockpile by at least 1,000 warheads, Fisher said.

“In addition, the U.S. must quickly reintroduce tactical nuclear forces back to the Navy and Army to enable more assured deterrence of North Korea and Iran,” he said.

A Pentagon spokesman did not respond to emails and telephone calls seeking comment.

Asked last month if China would soon deploy the DF-41, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Sr. Col. Yang Yujun told reporters in Beijing, “I don’t have any information to release here.”

In a Dec. 31 response to the Dec. 5 rail-mobile ejection test of the DF-41, Yang said “Scientific tests within the Chinese territory are conducted according to plan.”

A Chinese regional government website first disclosed the existence of the DF-41 on Aug. 1, 2014. The Shaanxi Province Environmental Monitoring Center official website reported the “China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation 4th Institute 43 Study Department DF-41 missiles” office had been closed.

The study office was said to be involved in developing composite materials used in the missiles. The office is in charge of building solid fuel rocket engine casings, missile canister launchers, and nozzles made from high-strength composite material.

The closure was said to be an indication that DF-41 development had advanced considerably.

The posting was removed days later, after Western news reports mentioned the post.

US Wants Russia Transformed into a US Vassal State… Doomsday Clock is Three Minutes to Midnight

forester — Sat, 30 Jan 2016 19:02:10 GMT

http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-wants-russia-transformed-into-a-us-vassal-state/5503787
By Stephen Lendman
Global Research, January 26, 2016
Region: Russia and FSU, USA
Theme: US NATO War Agenda
Paul Wolfowitz
Washington tolerates no governments it doesn’t control, wanting pro-Western vassal states replacing sovereign independent ones – notably Russia and China, both countries targeted for regime change.
Neocon/super-hawk former US Deputy Defense Secretary and World Bank president Paul Wolfowitz [pictured left] earlier explained Washington’s “first objective is prevent(ing) the re-emergence of (rival states), either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere.”

America seeks unipolar/New World Order dominance, pursuing a policy of state terrorism globally, wanting control over all other nations, threatening world peace, stability and security.

Russia knows what it’s up against. America is not “ally” or “partner”. On Tuesday, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was notably frank, saying:

“The policy of restraining Russia continues, though it is high time to drop this policy and file it in the historical archives.”

Washington remains intractably hostile, wanting all nations operating under its rules, serving its interests exclusively, posing no challenge to its hegemonic aims.

US administrations “attempted to impose agreements on us, respecting the interests of either the European Union or (America) in the first place, trying to convince us that they will not damage our interests. That’s over now,” said Lavrov.

Moscow seeks “close, constructive cooperation” with all nations, based on mutual solidarity and trust – “without interference (in any country’s) internal affairs,” respecting their sovereign independence.

Washington imposes its will on other nations politically, economically and militarily, seeking “one-sided benefits, (attempting) to punish us for conducting an independent international policy,” Lavrov explained.

Russia responds appropriately, prioritizing its interests and national security. Lavrov highlighted Washington’s “counterproductive and dangerous policy…”

“(B)uilding up (US-dominated NATO’s) military (presence) near our borders and the creation of global European and Asian segments of a global US missile system” threatens world peace and security.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday clock stands at three minutes to midnight, reflecting the “high” probability of “global catastrophe.”

Last January, BAS said “unchecked climate change, global nuclear weapons modernizations, and outsized nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and undeniable threats to the continued existence of humanity.”

“World leaders have failed to act with the speed or on the scale required to protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These failures of political leadership endanger every person on Earth.”

Since established in 1947, the clock was adjusted 18 times, ranging from two minutes to midnight in 1953 after America and Russia tested thermonuclear bombs to 17 minutes in 1991 – following Washington and Moscow’s Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and Soviet Russia’s yearend dissolution.

On Tuesday, BAS will announce whether its Doomsday Clock is closer, further distant from or unchanged from potential disaster.

Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago. He can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.

His new book as editor and contributor is titled “Flashpoint in Ukraine: US Drive for Hegemony Risks WW III.”

http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html

Visit his blog site at sjlendman.blogspot.com.

Listen to cutting-edge discussions with distinguished guests on the Progressive Radio News Hour on the Progressive Radio Network.

It airs three times weekly: live on Sundays at 1PM Central time plus two prerecorded archived programs.
The original source of this article is Global Research
Copyright © Stephen Lendman, Global Research, 2016

Exclusive: Islamic State ruling aims to settle who can have sex with female slaves

forester — Fri, 29 Jan 2016 13:53:20 GMT

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-islamic-state-sexslaves-exclusive-idUSKBN0UC0AO20151230
World | Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:32pm EST
WASHINGTON | By Jonathan Landay, Warren Strobel and Phil Stewart
Islamic State theologians have issued an extremely detailed ruling on when "owners" of women enslaved by the extremist group can have sex with them, in an apparent bid to curb what they called violations in the treatment of captured females.
The ruling or fatwa has the force of law and appears to go beyond the Islamic State's previous known utterances on slavery, a leading Islamic State scholar said. It sheds new light on how the group is trying to reinterpret centuries-old teachings to justify the rape of women in the swaths of Syria and Iraq it controls.
For a U.S. government translation of the fatwa click here.
The fatwa was among a huge trove of documents captured by U.S. Special Operations Forces during a raid targeting a top Islamic State official in Syria in May. Reuters has reviewed the document, which has not been previously published, but couldn't independently confirm its authenticity.

Among the fatwa's injunctions are bans on a father and son having sex with the same female slave; and the owner of a mother and daughter having sex with both. Joint owners of a female captive are similarly enjoined from intercourse because she is viewed as "part of a joint ownership."

The United Nations and human rights groups have accused the Islamic State of the systematic abduction and rape of thousands of women and girls as young as 12, especially members of the Yazidi minority in northern Iraq. Many have been given to fighters as a reward or sold as sex slaves.

Far from trying to conceal the practice, Islamic State has boasted about it and established a department of "war spoils" to manage slavery. Reuters reported on the existence of the department on Monday.

In an April report, Human Rights Watch interviewed 20 female escapees who recounted how Islamic State fighters separated young women and girls from men and boys and older women. They were moved "in an organized and methodical fashion to various places in Iraq and Syria." They were then sold or given as gifts and repeatedly raped or subjected to sexual violence.

DOS AND DON'TS

Fatwa No. 64, dated Jan. 29, 2015, and issued by Islamic State's Committee of Research and Fatwas, appears to codify sexual relations between IS fighters and their female captives for the first time, going further than a pamphlet issued by the group in 2014 on how to treat slaves.

The fatwa starts with a question: "Some of the brothers have committed violations in the matter of the treatment of the female slaves. These violations are not permitted by Sharia law because these rules have not been dealt with in ages. Are there any warnings pertaining to this matter?"

It then lists 15 injunctions, which in some instances go into explicit detail. For example:

"If the owner of a female captive, who has a daughter suitable for intercourse, has sexual relations with the latter, he is not permitted to have intercourse with her mother and she is permanently off limits to him. Should he have intercourse with her mother then he is not permitted to have intercourse with her daughter and she is to be off limits to him."

Islamic State's rape of female captives has been well documented, but a leading IS expert at Princeton University, Cole Bunzel, who has reviewed many of the group's writings, said the fatwa went beyond what has previously been published by the militants on how to treat female slaves.

"It reveals the actual concerns of IS slave owners," he said in an email.

Still, he cautioned that not "everything dealt with in the fatwa is indicative of a relevant violation. It doesn't mean father and son were necessarily sharing a girl. They're at least being 'warned' not to. But I bet some of these violations were being committed."

The fatwa also instructs owners of female slaves to "show compassion toward her, be kind to her, not humiliate her, and not assign her work she is unable to perform." An owner should also not sell her to an individual whom he knows will mistreat her.

Professor Abdel Fattah Alawari, dean of Islamic Theology at Al-Azhar University, a 1,000-year-old Egyptian center for Islamic learning, said Islamic State "has nothing to do with Islam" and was deliberately misreading centuries-old verses and sayings that were originally designed to end, rather than encourage, slavery.

"Islam preaches freedom to slaves, not slavery. Slavery was the status quo when Islam came around," he said. "Judaism, Christianity, Greek, Roman, and Persian civilizations all practiced it and took the females of their enemies as sex slaves. So Islam found this abhorrent practice and worked to gradually remove it.”

In September 2014 more than 120 Islamic scholars from around the world issued an open letter to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi refuting the group's religious arguments to justify many of its actions. The scholars noted that the "reintroduction of slavery is forbidden in Islam."

(Additional reporting by Ahmed Aboulenein in Cairo and William Maclean in Dubai, editing by Ross Colvin)

Militant Islamist fighters hold the flag of Islamic State (IS) while taking part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province in this June 30, 2014 file photo.
Reuters/Stringer/Files